Report by Mr. Thomas Hajnoczi, Executive Advisor for Hiroshima Peace Culture Foundation
Remarks by President Trump have caused doubts in Europe on the reliability of US military support in case of a Russian aggression against a NATO member. European countries are realizing that, with the shift of US interest away from Europe to Asia, they will have to become self-reliant in defense matters. The EU has launched a huge program to reinforce conventional armaments of European militaries.
The new tones from Washington have put a big question mark behind the US nuclear umbrella for NATO members, a scenario that was taken for granted by many Europeans. Experts have always pointed to the low probability that an American president would use nuclear bombs against Russia in a European conflict thus risking Russian nuclear attacks against big US cities. Now it became obvious for everyone that this nuclear umbrella might not unfold in a war.
This triggered a debate on – from the US independent – European nuclear weapons, primarily the French and possibly also the British nuclear arsenal becoming “Europeanized”. French President Macron had made such a proposal already in 2020 aiming also at co-financing of the French nuclear weapons by other European states. The sole authority on their use would stay with the French president, however. Some European countries have shown interest in the proposal, but the question would remain whether a French president would endanger Paris for the defense of a country bordering Russia. Alternatively, the Polish Prime Minister even mentioned the possibility of starting a Polish nuclear weapons program.
Both options, stationing French nuclear weapons in other European countries and developing nuclear weapons by hitherto non-nuclear weapon states, would be a clear violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. So countries willing to go down these paths would have to follow the North Korean example and withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Such steps would encourage other countries, especially in the Middle East and East Asia, to become nuclear weapon states themselves. This development would bring the collapse of the Non-Proliferation Treaty and usher us into a more dangerous world with 15 to 20 unbridled nuclear weapon states.
It would be another proof that nuclear weapons for the sake of nuclear deterrence do not bring security, but on the contrary pose a serious threat to the survival of mankind.